So I thought I'd start predicting how certain science fiction and fantasy films will do at the box office. No real reason for this except I enjoy genre films and how they've become vital to Hollywood's well-being. Doubt this last fact? Simply look at the top grossing movies of all time and try to imagine that list without genre films.
The first film on my list is Christopher Nolan's Inception, set for a July 16th release. I've long been a fan of Nolan's works as are most critics and movie lovers, all of whom are already lining up to kiss this film's celluloid ass. None of this is surprising given Nolan's excellent record with high quality films like The Prestige and Memento.
But that said, this film will be a major flop at the box office. And I don't say that simply because Leonardo DiCaprio made his stupid comment that people don't like science fiction films "because we have a hard time investing in worlds that are too far detached from what we know." Yeah Leo, that's why that list of all-time highest grossing films is filled with nothing but SF and fantasy epics.
No, the bigger problem is that this film deals with dreams, a tough subject for directors to touch without losing their ability to make a watchable film. I mean, even the great Akira Kurosawa couldn't do it with his Dreams.
In addition, the budget for this film is in excess of $200 million. Are you kidding me? None of Nolan's non-Batman films have made that much, with two--The Prestige and Insomnia--grossing just over $100 million. And Leo is hardly a box office draw anymore--that ship sank with Titanic.
My prediction is that this will be a good SF film which the critics will love, but which doesn't find a large audience because of its subject matter. Since Christopher Nolan is still Hollywood's golden boy and is working on another Batman movie, studios will overlook losing their shirts on this film. But that won't change the fact that Inception will be a flop.
Hey, Jason, the thing that bothers me is tht even the trailers don't seem that interesting! When I heard how much it cost to produce, I was dumb founded. Oh well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but I think you are correct on this one.
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Posted by: Diane Peters | July 12, 2010 at 09:07 AM
(Let's see if this comment works, lol)
I think you can pretty much relegate box office success/failure, critical success/failure and sf (quasi sf) films audience acceptance to a formula:
1. does it have a reigning star or two?
2. is as much or more money being spent on promotion as on production?
3. is it an original screenplay?
4. is it a re-make/do/imagination?
5. does it favor visual effects and empty-headed pseudo science over anything meaningful?
If the answers to all five questions are yes, way more, yes, no and yes, then the flick will be a box office success, probably universally reviled by genre fans and will get mixed critical reviews.
Posted by: Steve Davidson | July 13, 2010 at 09:07 AM
Shutter Island made 300 million worldwide. But Nolan's no Scorsese. I hope it's not a flop, b/c it's not good for anyone if an original story can't make a dent.
Posted by: Henry Baum | July 13, 2010 at 06:28 PM
Diane and Steve: I agree with much of what you said. And one problem for this film has been the lack of effective marketing. I mean, for a $200 million movie I'm not hearing the buzz people usually have for something that big. The trailers also haven't made me want to see this film, which is a big deal since I usually like Nolan's work.
Henry: If it's truly a good movie, then yes, I hope it doesn't flop. But this is merely my prediction. We'll see how things go.
Posted by: Jason Sanford | July 13, 2010 at 06:35 PM
If this movie flops, I agree with you Jason - I think it will be almost entirely due to marketing. I've seen next-to-no trailers for this movie (and the ones I did see are teaser trailers that don't offer the viewer any idea of what the movie is about). Inception is no I Am Legend or Watchmen. Very few people outside of the genre will know the first thing about it.
However, can I be the first to say how excited I am that Ken Watanabe is going to be in this?
Posted by: Kellye Parish | July 14, 2010 at 03:32 PM
Geeze. Next to no trailers? I've seen literally multiple trailers a day for at least the past two months!
Posted by: rochrist | July 15, 2010 at 01:32 PM
Geeze. Next to no trailers? I've seen literally multiple trailers a day for at least the past two months!
^ Helps that I don't have cable, therefore the only trailers I ever see are online advertisements, usually on streaming radio like Pandora or a network website like ABC.
Posted by: Kellye Parish | July 15, 2010 at 03:39 PM
The trailer looks boring and I am not a Leo Decrappio fan. I will wait for Netflix to get it. I don't like all the Christopher Nolan as* kissing either. FAIL.
Posted by: David | July 17, 2010 at 03:26 AM
Sorry, I'm going to have to disagree. If an idea is strong and pervasive enough - never mind it being mired in the entrails of genre - it will succeed. Moreover, Nolan is coming off The Dark Knight and he seems to be (and is career-wise) untouchable at the moment. It'll make bank.
Posted by: Tim | July 17, 2010 at 07:18 AM
I keep waiting for your follow-up ;)
Posted by: Henry Baum | July 19, 2010 at 05:45 PM
The film had a decent opening at $60 million. But we'll have to wait until the next week to see if it has holding power or merely played to the SF fan base.
By way of comparison, the film Serenity opened with ticket sales of $10 million its first week against its budget of nearly $40 million. Unfortunately, Serenity's box office take dropped off sharply in following weeks, and it only ended up making just over half of its budget back (which doesn't include ads and marketing). This suggests it only played to its fan base.
At $60 million, Inception has taken in just over a quarter of its budget, but it also paid for a massive ad campaign. Still, if it can keep up these numbers then I'll be wrong. But if it drops off sharply like Serenity did, they'll be in trouble.
Anyway, I'll write more on this in a week once the trend is clear.
Posted by: Jason Sanford | July 19, 2010 at 07:05 PM
I don't think Inception's going to drop off. If anything, I think it's going to have better-than-average staying power.
It was advertised as "by that dude who did The Dark Knight," which was smart, given The Dark Knight was one of the most popular and beloved movies in years, but the word of mouth on Inception feels huge to me. It's still a trending topic on Twitter a week after its release. To me, it's got a Matrix vibe: stunning action and visuals, and a plot people can't stop talking about. Dreams are really tricky to do well, and I think that was a smart prediction about why it might fail to connect, but the consensus seems to be that it works.
Even if it doesn't make another U.S. dollar after this weekend (as of today, it's right around $100M), the international box office would ensure it's profitable.
Posted by: Edward W. Robertson | July 22, 2010 at 10:24 PM
Yep, my prediction was wrong. More in the comments at http://www.jasonsanford.com/jason/2010/07/inception-flop-prediction-update.html
Posted by: Jason Sanford | July 25, 2010 at 04:11 PM